The Trump machine has yet to intimidate Nikki Haley

The magic of Dixville Notch ultimately didn't happen Tuesday night. This small village in northern New Hampshire, located 30 kilometers from the Quebec border, traditionally votes at midnight on election day, and a few of its residents have revealed the name of the Republican primary winner in a silent fallout between 1968 and 2012. This process predicts who will win the party's nomination for the November presidential election.

However, by 12:10 a.m. on January 23rd, all six registered voters had cast their six votes for Donald Trump's finalist in this year's race, Nikki Haley. “When I woke up Tuesday morning, I said to myself: It's done, she's swept it in Dixville Notch, and she's going to do it statewide,” Mary-Ann Donavan, a Republican activist, summed up Tuesday during a cross-day. In front of a polling station in Concord. “I believe with all my heart that this will happen.”

But the former president already visited this rural corner of the Granite State in 2016, when former Ohio Gov. John R. Losing against Kasich by a three-to-two margin, he later won the primary. The New Hampshire surprise didn't happen. The state's Republican electorate, though more liberal-minded and moderate in their conservatism, actually cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Donald Trump for the sirens of populism and the rhetoric of revenge and restoration. He won 54% of the vote, 10 points ahead of the former US ambassador to the United Nations.

A decision that puts the former president at risk of a new face-to-face with Joe Biden, and strongly compromises the former South Carolina governor's chances of presenting himself as the candidate of reason and trying to unify. The party, he asserts, would do well to make it out of the chaos brought about by Donald Trump.

“It's now almost certain that the Republicans' choice is Trump,” Iowa State University political science professor Steffen Schmidt explained in an interview. “He's a heavyweight, he's going forward with more energy than the other candidates, and this time he's doing so with a very well-organized campaign machine. »

A machine capable of mobilizing his supporters to vote, making them forget the strong images of his rebellion against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, to finally cancel the Democratic vote in favor of Joe Biden. presidential election, 91 charges against him in four separate criminal cases or his anti-democratic and authoritarian leanings.

“It's Joe Biden who's trying to silence the enemy by sending him to jail, not Donald Trump,” summed up Jim Cuthbert, an agri-food welder at a political rally last Friday. The President was expelled at Concord. “If the attacks against him are anything to go by, the allegations leveled against him are not based on any real information. »

And he added: “Joe Biden did not win the election. I am sure of it. I have seen many pictures on television of people tampering with ballot boxes. The evidence is clear. No one can argue against that with a little open mind. »

The Democratic Party won the 2020 presidential election by more than 7 million votes in the popular vote. Allegations of election fraud revealed by judicial recounts in several states, including those controlled by Republican majorities, contradict the facts initiated by Donald Trump to date.

Always in the saddle

Nikki Haley vowed again on Wednesday to stay in the race until next July's Republican convention. This is where the Republican candidate will be dubbed.

He continued his fresh attacks against the former president, whose mental abilities to lead the country are now being questioned after several disturbing reports. During his campaign in New Hampshire on Saturday, the former diplomat accused him of doing nothing to ensure the safety of the Capitol on January 6, confusing him with Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US Congress at the time.

A new TV campaign by Nikki Haley emphasizes the chaos that comes with Donald Trump and sets the candidate on a new, conservative, fairer path out of the impasse the former reality TV star has led the country into, she says.

But the path remains complicated for the 52-year-old politician, who is still trailing in the polls against Donald Trump, a month before the primary in his home state of South Carolina and six weeks before Super Tuesday, when a large swath of states will decide the inauguration. However, far from the early stages of this campaign, Iowa and New Hampshire, a framework is far from unchanged due to the fact that voters have not yet fully internalized these electoral concerns.

“The political class and the media want to crown Donald Trump,” Betsy Ankney, Nikki Haley's campaign manager, wrote Tuesday in Daytime. In a note to the press. “They say the race is over. After only 110,000 people voted in the Iowa caucuses, they want to throw up their hands and say, 'Well, I guess it's Trump.'” To this number, 300,000 New Hampshire voters are newly added.

“That's how it works,” he added. About 50% of Republican primary voters prefer someone other than Donald Trump. Seventy-five percent of the country prefers a choice other than Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Congressmen, journalists and many other weak fellows [une référence ici aux retraits de Ron DeSantis et de Chris Christie de la course] We have given up and have no intention of leaving. »

Political scientist Dean Lacey, a public opinion expert at Dartmouth University, said, “Even if she loses New Hampshire, Nikki Haley may decide to stay in the race as long as possible, hoping that Donald Trump can become the Republican nominee if possible. Not for legal reasons. After being found guilty of sedition, illegal handling of classified documents, and attempted election fraud in Georgia.

However, it's a scenario the Republican National Committee hasn't considered, thus adding uncertainty to an already unpredictable election campaign.

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