Medium range | Journalism

Occupation by the Israeli army

This scenario, mentioned by Benjamin Netanyahu at the beginning of November, targets the Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip for an “indefinite period”, in order to guarantee Israel’s “security” and prevent any possibility of Hamas’ reconstruction. However, in the face of “clear” opposition from Washington, the Israeli Prime Minister modified his statements, stressing that Israel “does not seek to rule Gaza,” but simply “to give it and us a better future,” without exception. A “reliable force” to enter the enclave if necessary in the face of security threats.

Is occupying territory in Gaza even possible? There is no doubt that Israel will want to expand its presence to stabilize the Strip. But Benjamin Topol, a doctoral student in political science at Laval University, does not believe this situation is viable for very long: “It will still be more complicated for Israel,” he says. In simple terms, on the security and economic level, this means concentrating a large number of elements in Gaza, when we know that the front with Lebanon and Hezbollah could pose a danger. »

Thomas Vescovi, an independent researcher specializing in the region, is less definitive. According to the author of the book The failure of utopia – a history of the left in IsraelNothing rules out that Israel wants to “organize” northern Gaza in its own way. “There is in the Israeli slogan, and even more so since October 7, the idea that Israel’s security can only be guaranteed by Israel. At the moment, the Israeli government views very positively the idea of ​​restoring northern Gaza and gradually changing the political situation, perhaps by establishing New colonies there, perhaps by occupying this area for a fairly long period of time. The will of the Israelis »

Occupation by an international peace force

Many observers have mentioned the possibility of “UN protection.” The problem with this option is that Israel is currently in open conflict with the United Nations, especially with its Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, whose criticism of it is increasing, which necessarily jeopardizes the scenario of an international peace force.

We can also ask: How will the residents of Gaza receive this scenario that Israel allowed? According to Professor Rex Brennen of McGill University, a Middle East expert, the UN peacekeeping force will likely be viewed as a “subcontractor to the Israeli occupation” and therefore received with hostility. Ultimately, this scenario will only have value in the concrete perspective of a Palestinian state, believes Rex Brennen.

The Palestinian Authority is responsible

The Palestinian Authority, which currently administers the West Bank, has a civilian administration and security and intelligence forces, in addition to benefiting from international financial support. The problem is that the Palestinians view it very poorly, seeing it as an authoritarian and corrupt entity. Its leader, the leader of the Fatah movement, Mahmoud Abbas, Yasser Arafat’s successor, no longer enjoys credibility, and he is accused of playing the Israeli game. In this context, it is difficult to see how this political entity, which was expelled from Gaza in 2007, could enter the Strip on the back of Israeli tanks.

Last week, US President Joe Biden called for the future reunification of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank under the umbrella of the “revitalized” Palestinian Authority. He stressed that “the Palestinian Authority in its current form is unable to bear responsibility for Gaza.”