In second place in terms of voting intentions, the AKP is climbing the slope.
A win in the Jean Talon by-election would add to that momentum.
But these superficial movements overshadow deeper realities.
Laval, Quebec’s third most populous city, has long been the political barometer of our society.
If Laval votes blue, the AKP will form the government. If Laval votes red, it’s PLQ.
Frédéric Lacroix, one of the most articulate analysts of our language situation, has just looked at the state of the French language in Laval based on the 2021 data.
His blog (fredericlacroix.quebec) is a must-have for anyone seriously interested in our language.
It’s simple: the Laval tradition runs incredibly fast. Laval is “going west” at breakneck speed.
The number of residents of Laval whose mother tongue is French (54.8% in 2021) has decreased by about 20 points in 20 years!
Native speakers of English got three points.
The number of Laval residents who speak French most often at home (62.1% in 2021) has fallen by 15.4 points in 20 years, while native English speakers have gained 5.6 points.
And here, dear reader, I ask you for a moment of genuine attention.
Why distinguish the mother tongue from the language spoken at home?
To measure the ability to integrate the languages of the host community.
The mother tongue of an immigrant family is Arabic or Russian. But after a few years in Quebec, what is the most spoken language at home?
This is called linguistic “transfer”: What is the new language that imposed itself on the house?
In 2021, 35.5% of the population of Laval had a mother tongue other than French or English.
For the future, it is very important to know whether they will be French or English.
And Lacroix shows that the Anglophone block, which is six times smaller than the Francophone block, attracts half of those who make the conversion!
As immigrants gradually abandon their mother tongue, they are increasingly switching to English!
Anglo-deniers will reply that all that matters is the language used in the public sphere, which is primarily the language used in business.
However, in Laval, Anglophones force their language to work, as Lacroix explains, “2.3 times greater than the relative size of their group according to the mother tongue”.
Like Montreal, Laval is inevitably English, and the future of French Quebec will not be determined – excuse me for the evidence – far from the capital.
It is for this reason that the PLQ party, which received only 4% of the voting intentions of the francophones, received 13% in total, and holds 17% of the seats in Parliament.
He just has to wait.
Laval, not Jean Talon, is, in Lacroix’s words, “Quebec’s laboratory for tomorrow and foreshadowing what lies ahead” if we do not act forcefully.
Laval: Once a barometer, always a barometer?
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