The four factors causing global warming in 2023

The main explosion of Honga Tonga And in 2022, an underwater volcano in the South Pacific alone will add 0.03 degrees Celsius in the next few years, according to a new report. Preliminary assessment Released last January. And unlike the “continental” eruptions, it wasn’t a lot of sulfur particles that were released into the atmosphere, but a huge amount of water vapor. However, water vapor is also a greenhouse gas: but in normal times, the water cycle ensures that there is a balance between the water that evaporates into the air and that that falls as rain,

The second factor is the sun. The energy sent to us by this fluctuates according to 11-year cycles. we at the current hour In the upward phase of the cycle that will peak in 2025. At its peak, this will be about 0.05°C higher.

Finally, the last factor, and the one we’ve heard about the most in recent months, is the El Niño phenomenon. This warming of the waters of the Pacific, which, by a domino effect, is disturbing the climate elsewhere in Asia and the Americas, reappears at irregular intervals, and with more or less strength. If the El Niño that started turns out to be a “strong” El Niño – such is its evolution Let him assume– This could contribute an additional 0.14° in 2023-2024, the same as the last of its kind, in 2016. Enough to temporarily surpass the symbolic mark of 1.5° increase since the pre-industrial era.

Together, these three factors remain the “minority” in the face of human-induced global warming, which is now about 0.1°C per decade. But these factors can explain The large number of temperature records that have been broken this summer, in addition to the abnormally large number of heat waves, in addition to wildfires. These three factors give A taste of the not too distant futureBecause when it fades, the temperature curve will continue to rise…