Donald Trump's victory yesterday over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire confirms, if necessary, that he will be chosen as the Republican Party's presidential nominee. But he does not provide a clear answer to a question that may determine his election to the presidency of the United States.
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A large number of Republicans and independents will not vote for him in November, preferring to vote for Biden or a third-party candidate. Others will decide to abstain from voting.
Let's look at what the polls say to try to figure out what the future holds.
Even before he won Iowa, a poll showed The New York Times It found that Trump had less support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (86%) than Biden had among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91%).
According to Axios, a record number of Americans, 49%, said they had become politically independent in the spring of 2023. Among independent voters, a poll indicates that Trump is losing support. Biden will lead Trump by 50% to 38%.
According to Gallup, independents are now the dominant voting bloc in the United States. The percentage of Americans who consider themselves Democrats has fallen to 27%, the lowest rate ever. Democrats have maintained the advantage most of the time since regular voting began in 1991.
Anyone instead of Trump
The media is focusing its attention on Trump's MAGA cultists, but there are also those in the Republican Party They never excel Who Trump calls RINOs (“Republicans in Name Only”).
Another poll showed that 43% of Nikki Haley's supporters in Iowa said they would vote for Biden over Trump in the presidential elections. Republicans are leaving the party, disgusted by Trump's positions and statements in which he declared that he intends to lead an authoritarian government made up entirely of Trump's supporters as government employees.
Nothing is won for Biden
Biden voters will vote for him for lack of anything better. He faces the disappointment of some Democratic voters who are threatening to vote for a third-party candidate (37%) or stay home in November. He has alienated some supporters by, among other things, his unconditional support for Israel in Gaza. Biden's approval rating is just 33%, worse than Trump's lowest level as president (36%). The lowest since George Bush from 2006 to 2008.
Only 31% of women approve of Biden working in the White House while 57% of them voted for him in 2020. But in one area, Biden is 15 points ahead of Trump: honesty and trustworthiness.
When it comes to the mental capacity of Trump and Biden, voters believe it is declining for both men. Trump's votes decreased by seven points compared to last May, while Biden's votes decreased by four points.
Trump is still headed toward the presidency. But it seems that more and more Americans are simply tired of the character's antics and the chaos he causes.
It will be interesting to see the results of next month's Republican primary in South Carolina, where Nikki Haley served as governor.
The presidential elections in November will be very close. Trump has already warned that he and his supporters will not accept defeat.
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