Poll: Confirm Biden's lead

Joe Biden's lead in the polls since his State of the Union address has been confirmed, more modest than impressive, according to the New York Times. The New York Timeswhich is publishing one of its famous metrics this Saturday, produced in association with Siena College (Free link). Donald Trump, who received 48% of voting intentions compared to 43% for the president last February, now leads his rival by only one percentage point, as he received 46% of voting intentions compared to 45% for Biden (8% of the votes). Voters are still undecided.)

According to this poll The New York Times/Siena College Biden's lead is mainly due to the return of a certain number of traditional Democratic voters who had previously shunned the president. This move comes despite continuing doubts about the country's leadership, the economy, and Biden's age, according to the newspaper times.

In an analysis accompanying his survey report, he said: times Publishes a table showing the evolution of opinion polls since the State of the Union address. Not all of these surveys are of the same quality and not all of them go in the same direction. But all metrics indicate an improvement in the outgoing president's situation.

It's rare for State of the Union addresses to be followed by changes at the ballot box. Perhaps 2024 will be an exception. There is reason to believe that other factors could pile up and help Biden's case, including the abortion issue's return to the news and the fact that the president's campaign has already begun. But the fact remains that Trump continues to lead the race by 0.6 percentage points, according to the average of the polls mentioned above (according to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump's lead is now just 0.2 points).

Always a helpful reminder: National polls can spot trends, but the presidency is played out in a few key states where voters sometimes deviate from national trends.

(CNP Images and Getty Images)