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COVID-19: What to expect in the coming weeks according to the Pasteur Institute?

COVID-19: What to expect in the coming weeks according to the Pasteur Institute?

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On Wednesday, February 16, the Pasteur Institute published new forecasts for the development of COVID-19 in France. They are very optimistic.

better. This is what emerges from The latest projections published by the Pasteur Institute Regarding hospital needs for covid patients. According to them, the number of new daily hospitalizations could rise to 500 on February 27.

As of February 17, according to Public Health France, the daily number of new people admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of Covid in 24 hours is 1,882.

The drop will also be confirmed in critical care daily admissions, which will drop from more than 150 in mid-February to nearly 70 at the end of the month.

The number of occupied beds in traditional hospitals will also decrease, according to reports the scientist : from just over 17,000 in mid-February to about 8,000 at the end of the month; Just like in critical care: 3200 to 1800 approx.

The data should be taken with caution according to the Pasteur Institute: “Producing such projections is a particularly difficult and uncertain process. Therefore it should always be considered with caution.” to our colleagues from GlobalismAn epidemiologist and modeling scientist at the Simon Cauchemez Institute, also identifies: “Our model tends to underestimate the length of stay recently, which may make it more optimistic about the decrease in occupied beds.”

Despite everything, optimism may be warranted in light of the Pasteur Institute forecasts issued at the end of last year about the potential impact of Omicron on hospitalization which prove very close to the data from the beginning of the year, as detailed Report published on February 16. Regarding cumulative hospitalizations between December 1 and February 11, the Institute scenario was 121,000. There were 118,000. Peak hospitalizations were observed on January 24 with 2,600 admissions per day at its peak; The institute’s scenario was for January 21st with 2,650 admissions. As for the number of beds occupied in intensive care on February 11, it reached 3150. The model expected 3,000 occupied beds.

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