Heavy rains may become more common due to global warming

Episodes of heavy rain like the one experienced in the UK last winter could increase in the future due to global warming, according to a recent international study.

Episodes of heavy rain in the United Kingdom may increase in the coming years, according to a study by climatologists working within the Global Network of International Scientists (WWA), published this Wednesday May 22 and reported by a British newspaper. Guardian.

As a result of global warming, episodes of heavy rain like those in England and Ireland last winter are ten times more likely. A dozen storms hit Great Britain between October 2023 and March 2024.

Towards such cumulative rainfall every 5 years

The extreme weather, which killed at least 20 people and caused significant damage to infrastructure and crops, made the 2023-2024 winter the UK's wettest in nearly two centuries.

This hypothetical study reveals that without the effects of global warming, such cumulative precipitation would only occur once every 50 years, but could occur every 5 years if temperatures rise by 1.2°C. If global temperature increases by 2°C, this rainfall accumulation may occur every 3 years.

In their results, scientists explain this by the fact that warmer air holds more water vapor and produces more rain.

“We can expect it to get worse.”

“Episodes of 'endless rain' in England and Ireland this autumn and winter have had a number of significant impacts,” Guardian Dr Mark McCarthy, climatologist at the UK Met Office and member of the WWA scientists panel.

“In the future, we can expect it to get worse, which is why it's important that we adapt to climate change and become more resilient,” the expert continued.

Hundreds of “trait studies” show how global warming is already worsening extreme weather conditions such as heat waves, wildfires, droughts and hurricanes around the world. In this case, the study focuses on storms such as Babette, Ciaran, Henk and Isha.

Dr Ellie Murdoch, head of climate events management at the British Red Cross, said a series of storms and floods had led to “more than a third increase in home insurance claims” in recent years, reaching a record £573 million (€673 million). ) Disaster related compensation.