US midterm elections slow to find a winner

The battle for democracy continues in the United States: Three days after the midterm elections, the fight is still raging for a majority in the House and Senate. Americans can even wait weeks before knowing the final verdict. Analyze the big gains and losses so far – and explain why recent results continue to be delayed.

With 211 of the 218 seats needed for a majority, Republicans were on their way to taking control of the House on Friday. About 30 seats have yet to be allocated. However, current data shows that the Conservative Party victory will be much shorter than many media and experts had predicted.

A Republican invasion of the room by a narrow majority would have less serious consequences for Democrats than the “red tsunami” scenario, which did not happen. Because even if the dominance of the House of Representatives depends only on obtaining the minimum of 218 seats, the ruling party can still be weakened by a small majority.

“As long as you are the majority, it doesn’t matter if your margin is 1 or 50 seats,” says Raphael Jacob, political analyst attached to the seat Raoul Dandurand, of the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).

However, the composition is very divided May hold the election of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, which needs 218 votes. The Speaker of the House of Representatives is the third most important person in the United States, after the President and Vice President.

“In a highly divided system, where you can’t expect to get votes from the opposing party, if the caucus doesn’t support you unanimously, it would make a difference in getting a short majority or a much larger majority,” explains El-Sayed. Yaaqoub.

A narrow majority of Republicans would also make the upcoming election more uncertain than if the red wave occurred, as Democrats would only have to reclaim a few seats if they wanted to reclaim the House reins.

When the party wins [la Chambre des représentants] By a large margin, this majority tends to be safer for a longer time. At the moment, the situation is very volatile, and no one can say who will win or regain a majority in the House of Representatives in two years.”

Uncertainty in the Senate

If a trend emerges for the House of Representatives, the majority in the Senate remains highly uncertain. There were only a third (35) of the 100 seats won on the ballot, and 32 seats won so far: 12 Democrats and 20 Republicans.

The two sides nearly tied with 48 and 49 seats on Friday. A 49^e But the seat will be within the reach of Democrats in Arizona.

Pennsylvania is the only state that has seen a change of allegiance in the Senate, after Democrats wrested it from Republicans. Democratic candidate Jon Fetterman won 51% of the vote over Trump’s candidate Mehmet Oz – a blow to Republicans, because every seat is crucial to seizing control.

According to many American media, the former president Donald Trump He was “angry” about the loss on Wednesday. It is said that the billionaire blamed the people who advised him to support Dr^s Mehmet Oz in the race, including his wife Melania.

With the dispute over three seats still going on — Nevada, Arizona and Georgia — two scenarios are now possible in the Senate. If either side took control of Arizona and Nevada, it would automatically control the Senate. On the other hand, if the same party does not win the two states, everything will remain with Georgia, who will decide.

In this case, it may take several days, or even weeks, before the verdict is known, as the results will not be known until December 6. Today is the second round in Georgia. With no candidate crossing the 50% mark, current Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and former Republican soccer star Herschel Walker will have to face each other again. Raphael Warnock won 49.4% of the vote on Tuesday, compared to 48.5% for his Republican challenger.

If Georgia had to decide, the race would be decisive for her Joe Bidenwho must retain the Senate if he wants to continue his program for the next two years.

“Retaining the Senate to Democrats will ensure that Joe Biden can continue to appoint people to the US government, including federal judges, for the next two years. This is very important,” explains a postdoctoral researcher in the Raoul Dandurand Chair at UQAM.

Remember, Republicans must win 51 seats to control the Senate, while Democrats must win 50 to keep them.

Democrats had a razor-thin majority ahead of Tuesday’s election: The Senate was split 50-50, but Democrats held power thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris, who can cast a decisive vote on measures if the House of Representatives hits a dead end.

Anticipation and conspiracy

Americans voted on Tuesday, but several days after polling, results are still pending. why ? Each of the 50 states has its own rules — some of which make quick counting nearly impossible, Jacob said.

In Nevada, for example, election rules regarding voting by mail contribute to this expectation: As long as the ballot papers are stamped before Election Day, they can be counted until Saturday, November 12.

“So it is entirely possible that Nevada will continue to receive the ballot this Friday. Impossible to finish [le dépouillement] Tuesdays with such rules.”

The extra time needed to regularly complete the count fuels conspiracy theories, as was the case in 2020. “It was dangerous not to be faster and more efficient in the US social context. I think the risk was even greater in 2020, with Donald Trump on the ballot. But today, the climate doesn’t help at all, says Mr. Jacob.

Trumpism weakened

Although they generally receive less attention than the congressional battle, gubernatorial races are the subject of important issues, such as voting access, abortion access, and transgender rights.

The United States elected 24 Republican and 22 Democratic governors, which is a two-position gain for Democrats at the moment. The results are still unofficial for four states: Oregon (the Democratic Party was announced by several media), Nevada, Arizona and Alaska.

The re-election of Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has been the subject of much debate since Tuesday. Donald Trump’s potential challenger to the Republican Party’s nomination for the 2024 presidential election has been re-elected with nearly 60% of the vote.

For Rafael Jacob, the election of DeSantis and the election of other Republican governors, such as Brian Kemp in Georgia and Chris Sunono in New Hampshire, demonstrate voters’ tendency to turn away from former President Trump.

All of these are Republican governors comfortably re-elected in states that are not necessarily Republican strongholds. When you look at their profile, these are the guys who didn’t introduce themselves as Trumpists. They really cultivated their own brand. »

Indeed, a string of openly backed candidates from the former US president were defeated – a show of weakness for many Republican Party allies. Mr. Trump, who is likely to announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, is now under fire, as being responsible for the fate of Republicans in several important races.

It’s hard to predict what will happen to his announcement Tuesday, according to Rafael Jacob. ” [S]throws himself [dans la course de 2024]He does not do so from a position of strength. Looking at the Truth Social, the messages he’s been sending for the past few days are disjointed. It is terrifying. »

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