US Census: The Southern Republic’s Electoral Weight Gain

The Census Bureau said that with a 7.4% increase since 2010, the United States now has 331.5 million people (we Census Bureau), According to the last decimal census conducted last year.

Over the past decade, the American population has seen the second-smallest increase since the census began in 1790. This demographic slowdown, and most importantly thereafter between 1930 and 1940, is explained by the declining birth rate and declining immigration.

The state’s demographics, details of which will be released later this year, will affect the hundreds of billions the federal government provides for areas such as education, hospitals and housing.

The Trump administration, which wanted to add a question about citizenship to the census form and thus exclude irregular immigrants, He was forced to retreat distance A setback in the Supreme Court.

The resulting picture will also have an impact on the political weight of the states in Washington. Thus political power will continue to shift south over the next decade, as states in the Midwest and Northeast that have historically supported Democrats lose their seats.

The number of Representatives in the House of Representatives – 435 – remains constant, but its distribution across states varies every 10 years, according to the count. The Electoral College, for its part, maintains its 538 members, a total of 435 elected members of the House of Representatives and 100 members of the Senate, in addition to the three main electors in the District of Columbia.

Six winners and seven losers

Six states will emerge as winners in the electoral redistribution that results from this latest census and seven will lose, according to announced outlines.

As a result, the states that benefit from them will have a greater mandate in the House of Representatives and at the same time will see an increase in the number of large voters electing the President. On the contrary, the losers will see their weight drop.

However, the seat transfers will be smaller than expected. Some estimates expected the situation to change by a total of 10 seats.

With its two additional seats and a large number of voters who voted for president, Texas, which has not elected a Democratic candidate for president since 1980, is the state that will benefit the most from the practice.

North Carolina, the more republican, and Florida, which is becoming more and more republican, on their part each of them will have a representative as well as a great elector. Oregon and Colorado, which have leaned more toward the Democratic Party in recent years, and Montana, which is experiencing a reverse political movement, are still in the same situation. Montana until now had only one actor; He will have two.

The gains for Texas and Florida will be lower than expected: By some estimates, they were both supposed to get one more seat than they would, and Arizona failed to win a seat, suggesting that the number of Hispanic Americans is below estimates, analyst David Wasserman said. . From the Cook Political Report.

California – the state’s most populous and democratic bastion – will suffer a setback for the first time after experiencing slow population growth.

Another populous state, New York, as well as other democracies like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois will lose one seat and one elector each.

The other two losers are Ohio and West Virginia, both of which are more Republicans.

Observers also expected Alabama, Minnesota and Rhode Island to lose.

It is noteworthy that New York had a population of only 89 to hold all of its seats.

If the 2020 presidential election had gone according to this new distribution, Democratic President Joe Biden would have had a few major voters, but he would have won the Electoral College easily.

Thus, he would have obtained 303 voters instead of 306Donald Trump had 235 instead of 232.

Another advantage for Republicans is on the electoral horizon of 2022

The next redistribution of the electoral map will be in 2021, following the 2020 census. Consequently, the new map will be used for the first time during the 2022 mid-term elections.

Redistributing seats along with the redistribution could help the Republicans, for whom the recovery of Champy is close at hand. Democrats are the majority, but only narrowly. They currently have 218 deputies compared to 212 Republicans, with five seats vacant.

Some states pledge committees to redistribute provinces, but most states give this responsibility to their legislators and give the governor the veto power.

However, the Republicans will control the redistribution process in many more states than the Democrats, given their greater success at the state polls in the last election.

Studies show that Republicans more than their rivals manipulate county boundaries to maximize the number of wins they can win, a practice dubbed Manipulation.

Maryland’s third district is a good example of this creative redistribution to say the least.