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Tropical Storms: Heading towards a record month of November

Tropical Storms: Heading towards a record month of November

Typically, the Atlantic basin begins its progression toward more calm at this time of year. Activity usually peaks in mid-September, and it’s common to not see any storms forming throughout November.

Lion starts the month

But the beginning of November 2022 is atypical: three named storms (Lisa, Martin and Nicole) have already formed in one week. And at the time of this writing, another depression is likely to turn into a storm, which will thus become the fourth of the month.

Hurricane 2 - Nicole's Path

Hurricane 3 - Watch Area

The water is still warm

The Atlantic hurricane season peaks at the end of November. There is usually very little activity after Halloween: only 7% of the season’s storms form in November. But this year, the waters in the Atlantic are still warm – from 20°C to 30°C – between the equator and New York. This saves a lot of energy for storm formation. Therefore, another depression has a greater than 50% chance of forming a storm and hence name it Owen.

VMET22 . Water

Towards a standard November?

On average, the Atlantic Basin records one specific storm in the month of November every three years. This is only the sixth time in history that three named storms have occurred in November. So this late tropical activity is really exceptional and has a good chance of becoming historic. It is a situation that will be closely monitored in the coming days.

Hurricane 4 - Active in November

Late storms?

Over the past 30 years, three or four tropical storms have appeared during August. In 2021, seven storms formed, four of which turned into hurricanes. In 2022, August’s file remains blank, which is a rare occurrence. Only once, in 1961, did we see four named storms during the month of November. This sign can be well equalized over the next few days, and there are still 23 days left in the month. Remember that in 2005, Tropical Storm Zeta was named December 30th.

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