Normally, Democrats would suffer major defeats and lose control of the House and Senate in November, but there isn’t much normal in American politics these days.
Historically, the president’s party has tended to lose seats in midterm elections. Additionally, Biden’s acceptance rating is late in low water and economic pessimism is rampant.
In short, everything suggests that Republicans should make convincing gains in November. However, Tuesday’s primaries in five states point to cracks in their armor.
Despite the apparent strength of the Republicans, the polls are not very much in their favour. Part of their difficulty stems from Donald Trump’s insistence on integrating himself into the political scene when voters want to get away with it.
Given the divisions among Republicans highlighted on Tuesday, it appears that candidates who are strongly identified with Trump will lose support in the center while those who dared to oppose him may lose if Trump rally his supporters against them, in a spirit of revenge.
Trump’s obsession with bringing his big lie about the 2020 election to the fore can only hurt Republicans who want to turn the midterm elections into a referendum on Biden and inflation.
Moreover, some of Trump’s subjects (notably his Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Georgia) are chips that could cost their party control of the Senate.
In Tuesday’s vote, we will remember the resounding defeat of abortion opponents in Kansas. In this conservative state, where the Constitution nevertheless guarantees the right to abortion, Republicans were confident that they could erase that right by referendum.
They were counting on the Democrats’ low turnout in the midsummer primaries, but instead they galvanized pro-choice voters and “no” won about 60% of the vote, as districts usually won. Republicans.
This result bodes well for Democrats who want to wake their voters from their slumber by making abortion a major battleground after the Supreme Court’s radical right-wing turn on the issue.
Other life buoys
There are less than 100 days until the midterm elections, which gives Democrats time to seize more opportunities. Republicans’ unwarranted opposition to a law to ensure health care for thousands of veterans exposed to toxic fumes while on duty could be such an opportunity.
In general, even if the economy remains unpredictable, a rapid slump in inflation may mitigate voter dissatisfaction with Biden and Republicans.
In that sense, the anti-inflation bill led by Democratic centrist Senator Joe Manchin could put some wind in the Biden administration’s sails, while exposing Republican opposition to popular measures broadly.
In light of the midterm elections, Republicans remain the candidates, but the game is not over yet.
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