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À la fin du siècle, la saison des allergies durera plus longtemps qu'aujourd'hui, selon une simulation informatique. © andreus K, Adobe Stock

Scientists have bad news for allergy sufferers

Uncontrollable sneezing, red eyes and a runny nose, the beginnings of spring often rhyme with the first pollen of the year. With global warming and rising temperatures, allergy season could start much earlier and end much later according to a recent study published in Nature Communications.

If you live on the Mediterranean arc, you may have an itchy nose, eyes Runny and uncontrollable sneezing for a few days. In the region, cupressaceae (redwood, cypress and junipers) emerge from their winter rest and produce pollen in large quantities. In western France, ash pollen saturatesair. 2022 season It started very early, from mid-January, particularly due to the mild temperatures recorded at the beginning of the year. A trend that is likely to continue or even increase with an extension Global Warming.

Infinite allergy season

Yingsao Chang and Alison SteinerThe Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering from the University of Michigan, working on a computer simulation which predicts the intensity and Duration From emissions Daily pollen between 2081 and 2100 – in a world where temperatures jumped 4-6 degrees Celsius. Their analysis relates only to the United States and 13 Categories of plants responsible for 77% of Allergy respiratory system in the country. According to their results, the season From vaccine They may be much longer, but they are also much more severe than the ones we are currently facing. Bad news for allergy sufferers!

Simulations indicate that spring pollen can appear 10-40 days in advance, and those of summer andautumn Lasts up to 15 additional days. Regarding the intensity of pollen emissions, all species plants Analyzed here does not react the same way. For example, file precipitation Temperature reduces daily pollen production by 33% for alder, but increases oak production by 50%.

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However, the overall increase in pollen emissions over one year is 16-40%. Who says more CO2 Atmosphere, says more pollen. It’s a vision The scientific community has made it for many years. when carbon dioxide concentrations2 After entering the researchers’ simulation, the peak in pollen production is 200% higher than that observed in recent years, and still is in the United States.

An important issue for public health

Respiratory allergies to pollen are a real public health problem. It concerns 20 to 25% of the French, adults and children alike. In susceptible people, respiratory allergies, such as tobacco or pollution, can promote the onset of crisis. This chronic disease is characterized by inflammation two branches Which causes episodes of shortness of breath. shortness of breathFrom the pressure chest and cough;

Approximately 2,000 people die each year as a result of asthma, including 100 children, teenagers or young adults. France’s public health authority estimates that more than 60,000 people have been hospitalized asthma attack every year. In the coming years, respiratory sensitivity is likely to last longer and be more severe, increasing the risk of complications.

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