Putin’s defeat begins

As expected, Vladimir Putin was victorious on the military front, but lost on other fronts. This explains his offer to negotiate with the Ukrainians.

A few days ago, Putin suggested that the Ukrainian army stage a coup to overthrow the Ukrainian president. This bravado is no longer on the agenda.

The Ukrainian resistance is stronger than Putin expected. Sanctions against Russia are faster and harder than thought.

Nor did he expect that Ukraine’s annexation would be condemned in this way around the world.

The evidence for this is that the Russian media, including the Internet, did not receive any orders restricting the dissemination of information at the beginning of the invasion. Absence of instructions that contradict the careful preparation of the invasion in other regions. The instructions are strict now. Russian media can no longer transmit information from foreign media, and Internet networks are being cleaned up.

Serious contradictions

Putin faces serious ideological contradictions. Why did the Ukrainian population, who supposedly came to the Russian army to liberate Nazism and genocide, take up arms on such a large scale against this army?

How do we say that the Ukrainians are brothers and shoot them at the same time?

Sooner or later, Putin will have to justify to his people the horrific devastation he is inflicting on Ukraine. The Russian soldiers will go home and will explain what they saw. Russian families
Ukrainians will testify to what is happening.

Did Putin himself believe the myths he told about Ukraine? It seems so.

save face

Putin’s defeat began in world opinion and in Russian public opinion.

The negotiations that Putin is trying to conduct with Ukrainian leaders are meant to save face. Just like putting the Russian nuclear forces on alert.

After the ceasefire, what will the Ukrainians accept? Endorsement of the occupation of their lands? Loss of Crimea and Donbass? It is doubtful. On the other hand, the Ukrainians could agree not to be part of NATO.

Heavy fighting in Ukraine is likely to continue despite the negotiations. Advances in this area are all assets that can be leveraged at the negotiating table.

important consequences

Putin’s retreat will have important consequences for his leadership. In the apparatus of power as in the case of the population, these negotiations will be seen as a setback. A setback shows an error in judgment. However, Putin likes to project the image of an infallible leader.

Putin is 69 years old. This lifespan is low in the West, but it is in Russia, where the average life expectancy for men is only 66 years.

The invasion of Ukraine may mark the beginning of the end of Putin’s rule.