Omicron: hospital loads eliminated within 3 weeks if nothing is done

New data revealed that hospitals across the county could be full within three weeks if nothing is done to curb the spread of COVID-19, supported by the Omicron variant.

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In an interim report published online Thursday, the National Institute for Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS) sees a sharp increase in the number of hospital admissions in the coming weeks.

According to the statistical model developed by the organization, the county could count at least 160 new treatment cases in early January if nothing was done to curb the spread of the virus.

INESSS came to this conclusion after analyzing data from “the only large-scale study on the Omicron variant released to date”.

However, this study was conducted in South Africa, where the Omicron variant was first discovered, “on a population with a vaccination rate as well as different characteristics,” according to the institute.

The more optimistic forecast released earlier this week took into account the data available so far for INESSS, where the arrival of the Omicron variant was not taken into account.

In light of this new data, the institute thus concludes that “the strong growth in the number of cases should translate into a significant increase in the number of daily hospitalizations over the coming weeks, and therefore in the occupancy rate of regular and intensive care beds.”

According to this scenario, the household occupancy should reach level 1 set by the MSSS within 3 weeks, that is, the minimum at which the health network must give up certain activities, for example, elective surgeries.

The Prime Minister, François Legault, the Minister of Health, Christian Duby, and the National Director of Public Health, Dr.^s Horacio Arruda, should assess the situation Thursday at 6 p.m.