Oil company’s forecast still not in line with climate goals | COP26 – Climate Change Conference in Glasgow

The 2015 climate agreement aims to limit warming to well below +2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, if possible to +1.5°C. And one of the levers of action to reduce emissions is to get out of fossil fuels, which are particularly polluting.

But the production plans of governments in this sector are still in place in a dangerous turn With the Paris goals, the United Nations Environment Program lamented Wednesday two weeks before the COP26 climate conference. hoping to stay below +1.5°C, Global production of fossil fuels must begin to decline immediately and sharply, confirms the report issued by United Nations Environment ProgramUnited Nations Environment Program And many research institutes.

But this is not the case.

Countries They still expect an increase in oil and gas production, and only a modest decline in coal production by 2040explained Ploy Ashakoluisut, researcher at Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI) and lead author of the report.

Government production plans will lead to an increase of about 240% in coal, 57% in oil and 71% in gas in 2030 which would be compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Altogether, if we consider fossil fuels as a whole, the production forecasts for 2030 are 2 times (110%) higher than those compatible with limiting warming to +1.5 ° C, and 45% more than corresponding to warming. to + 2 ° C.

Do not decline in the oil companies

According to climate experts fromHIM-HER-ITUnited Nations Organization (IPCC), in order not to exceed +1.5 degrees Celsius, the world must reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 45%₂ By 2030, compared to 2010, and continue efforts to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050.

The latest IPCC report in August warned of the risk of reaching the +1.5°C threshold already around 2030, ten years earlier than expected.

Despite these alerts showing that time is running out to act and avoid the worst effects of global warming, the size of the fossil fuel production gap has remained. largely unchanged Compared to assessments conducted by the same researchers since 2019, the report notes.

Thus, less than two weeks before the start of COP26 in Glasgow, one of his goals is to do his best to ensure that the +1.5°C target remains within reach,HIM-HER-ITUnited Nations Organization again presses on.

At COP26 and beyond, governments around the world must step up and take swift and immediate action to close the fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition. This is climate ambition.

There is still a long way to go to achieve a clean energy futureOn his part, the Secretary-General ofHIM-HER-ITUnited Nations Organization Antonio Guterres, called for all funds allocated to fossils to be transferred to renewable energies, to promote complete decarbonization of the electricity sector and access to renewable energies for all.

Fire-affected countries

Despite the need to decarbonize to meet their climate commitments, some countries Intensify its investments in support activities for the production of fossil fuels, confirmed by Michael Lazarus, from CouldStockholm Environmental Institute.

According to the report, since the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020, G20 countries have allocated about $300 billion to financing fossil fuels, more than renewable resources.

On the other hand, researchers welcome this drop Importance International public financing of fossil fuels, and the decision of several multilateral development banks to exclude new investments in the sector.