How is the COVID-19 situation in Quebec different from last year?

On Wednesday, Quebec crossed the 2,300 daily infection mark. A year ago, on the same date, the county reported 1,797 cases, or 589 fewer. How is the health status different between now and last year?

Although the latest daily COVID-19 reports are similar to those at the beginning of December last year in terms of the number of cases, deaths and hospitalizations attributable to the virus are still much lower, in part through vaccination. Picture may change “in the short term” due to the prevalence of the Omicron variant.

“The vaccine protects us very well from hospitalization due to the delta variant, so despite the fact that we have a lot of cases, we have a much smaller number of hospitalizations. This is a difference,” explains Gaston de Serres, medical advisor at the National Institute of Public Health in Quebec (INSPQ). Big difference between the current situation and the situation last year.

Between December 7 and 13, 2020, authorities reported an average of 1,788 new daily cases, 61 below the average on the same dates this year (1,849), according to INSPQ data. Despite this increase, there are 10 times the number of deaths compared to last year. During the same week, there were an average of 38 deaths in 2020, compared to 3 this year.

Quebec announced 4 additional deaths on its balance sheet for Wednesday, December 15, 2021. A year ago to this day, we’d rather be announcing 41 new deaths.

Gathering permit for 20 people vaccinated at Christmas maintained It will depend on the number of patients in hospital as the holiday season approaches, confirmed Francois Legault Wednesday.

Much less than hospitalization

The number of hospital admissions is also much lower than it was on the eve of last year’s vacation. Also from December 7 to 13, the number of intensive care patients was almost double this year, and even almost four times less for stays outside of intensive care.

How do you explain the discrepancy between the increase in the number of injuries and the decrease in the number of hospitalizations and deaths compared to last year?

“For the delta variable, we see the efficiency [du vaccin] To protect against almost unchanged hospitalization [à travers le temps] : Increased from 97% two weeks after the second dose to 95% between two weeks and more thereafter [la deuxième injection] “,” defines the letter D^s from Ceres.

However, the vaccine’s protection against infection is not the same: efficacy increases from about 92% to 75% between injections of the second dose and after 32 weeks. “What that tells us is that among those who have been vaccinated, we have a certain susceptibility to infection, but not to serious illness,” the medical official adds.

Despite this seemingly favorable data compared to last year, the continued increase in the number of cases will inevitably have an impact on hospital admissions, notes Dr.^s from Ceres. And the arrival of the Omicron variant will probably be the biggest “disruptor” when the holidays come.

La Minis Omicron

With a report of 95 confirmed cases in Montreal as of Wednesday, the presence of the Omicron variant in Quebec remains a mystery. For its part, at the county level, INSPQ only counted a total of 11 laboratory-confirmed cases of the Omicron variant and 24 “hypothetical” cases, or 13 more cases than on Tuesday.

It is clear that Omicron will change the picture in the short term. Is it in two weeks, a month? We don’t know, but Quebec certainly won’t get away with it,” according to Dr^s from Ceres.

It has already started in the county for a few weeks, and the increase in infections is sure to increase as the new type, which is highly contagious, spreads. And the number of new cases is increasing sharply (29%) compared to the previous week (8220 vs. 6,348). This increase is noticeable in all age groups and in most regions.

Part of this infection will necessarily translate to hospitalization, and many of it is in the unvaccinated, explains the doctor, who remembers that an unvaccinated person is 20 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than an adequately vaccinated person.

“Of course, with the delta variant, we weren’t too concerned about hospitalization, because the 95% protection is still tremendous. But if it goes down too much with the Omicron variant, it can be very difficult to prevent the flow of cases in hospitals,” admits the medical advisor.

However, many questions remain unanswered regarding the severity of the variant and its impact on hospital treatment. “While we were just beginning to tame the delta variant, the Omicron variant, by its very nature highly contagious, is asking us to question our decisions regarding health measures,” the Department of Health and Human Rights said. Social services via email at a task.

On Wednesday, the Federal Minister of Health, Jean-Yves Duclos, announced that the development of the Omicron variant internationally “made it[sait] Fear the worst.” Canadians must now Reconsider any non-essential holiday travel plans abroadAccording to Ottawa.

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