Covid-19: ‘The funny epidemic’ in Basse-Saint-Laurent | Science | News | the sun

It is entirely possible that differences in local economies explain these differences, at least in part. The West of Bas-Saint-Laurent is more industrial than the East, and the worst outbreaks have occurred in factories and slaughterhouses – for example, 104 cases among workers in the Viandes du Bretons have closed, including the Rivière-du-Loup this morning, and there have been 80 outbreaks. Case also in Aliments Asta, in Kamouraska.

The socio-economic fabric of Rimouski is completely different, as there is a university and CEGEP, as well as many administrative functions – which can facilitate remote work. And if I trust what I see when I go to Gaspésie, the eastern Bas-Saint-Laurent is more of an agricultural, fishing and tourist area than an industrial one, except perhaps around Matane – let me correct if I’m wrong. It may have slowed the spread of the disease there.

However, it didn’t always happen that way, Bas-Saint-Laurent’s Director of Public Health, Dr Sylvain Leduc, told me during a press conference this afternoon. “It is true that it is with the socio-economic fabric of KRTB [ndlr : Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata-Les-Basques]With slaughterhouses and factories, they will have more transmission. (…) But in general, when we look at 1^Return And 2^e Mysteriously, KRTB wasn’t always the place worst hit. There were times when Rimouski was more communicative, ”he said.

How do you explain all this? Why might this popular “KRTB” be a hotbed of contagion now due to its more industrialized economy, but that same industrial economy didn’t have the same effect during last fall’s wave? Hit me, As they say in English. I really don’t see more than chance.

It has long been known that COVID-19 is a disease that transmits extremely heterogeneously: most infected people do not transmit their microbe, or very little, to those around them, but a small minority is responsible for many infections – “super propaganda”.

Last Monday, moreover A study published in PNAS It showed that about 90% of the circulating COVID viruses are concentrated in only 2% of those infected. And last February, Another study (Also in PNASShow that from person to person, the amounts of aerosols emitted from speaking and breathing can vary by a factor of 1000. This means that it is extremely difficult to predict the moment in which a community outbreak will occur: many cases that are very non-infectious can be detected, which will not start In an outbreak or small case only, before there is one or a few cases that carry and release many viruses around them.

However, Dr. Leduc stressed that once the epidemic begins, it becomes more predictable and then respect for health instructions – something that is lacking in certain sectors – which he regrets – that determines whether the infection will stop or continue. This is absolutely true. Except on the other hand, when dealing with small communities, the number of cases is also relatively small, so even after an outbreak begins, the opportunity may still play a role. Larger than big cities, great numbers allow a law of probabilities to take hold. ProfessionIf I may say so.

I do not know if this is what explains style Noted in Bas-Saint-Laurent. It is possible, but at this point, your hypotheses will be as good as mine. so what’s your opinion ?