Paris, France | The United Nations warned Thursday that there is a 40% chance that the average temperature in a year by 2025 will cross the 1.5-degree threshold above pre-industrial levels, the goal of the Paris Agreement to combat global warming.
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Amid the impacts of climate change, the past decade has recorded record temperatures: 2020 joined 2016 in the highest step of the warmest year on record in the world, averaging 1.25 ° C above the pre-industrial period.
Nevertheless, the Paris Agreement, concluded in 2015, sets the goal of “containing the rise in the average temperature of the planet to significantly below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, by continuing the measures taken to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 ° C (which) would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. “
But the odds of at least being crossed within a calendar year are rising, according to a study by the British Meteorological Office of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations, published Thursday. .
“The average annual global temperature is likely to be 40% above pre-industrial values temporarily by 40% for at least one of the next five years, and this probability increases over time,” the World Meteorological Organization notes in its presentation. Global Climate Forecast Bulletin Annual to Decade.
In addition, “it is 90% likely that at least one year between 2021 and 2025 will be the hottest ever recorded, and thus dispose of the throne in 2016.”
Even if this overshoot is only temporary, “this study shows, with great scientific reliability, that we are approaching in a measurable and relentless way the bottom line of the Paris Agreement,” Petteri Taalas, president of the World Meteorological Organization, confirms in this presentation.
And to warn of the consequences, as “the increase in temperatures translates into increased melting of ice, rising sea levels, increased heat waves and other extreme weather phenomena, as well as greater repercussions on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.” “.
Other experts have indicated that a temporary overshoot of 1.5 ° C would not necessarily mean the end of the Paris Agreement goals, such as Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London. “But it’s still very bad news,” he said. “This tells us again that actions against global warming have not been completely sufficient yet and that it is urgently necessary to reduce (greenhouse gas) emissions to zero to stop warming.”
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