On Nov. 8, Americans will be invited to vote in midterm elections that could give Republicans a majority in Congress — and, in turn, establish the soldiers Donald Trump will rely on to become the presidential nominee in 2024.
Democrats have a small majority in the House of Representatives (equivalent to the House of Commons in Canada), and even slimmer in the Senate. In the House, where all 435 seats are at stake, Republicans need five more elected officials to regain control. In the Senate, 34 of the 100 mandates would be renewed, and a win would ensure them a majority. And they are a favorite, especially in the House.
The ballot promises to be tough for Joe Biden’s Democrats. First, for a reason rooted in history: the president’s party almost invariably loses feathers in midterm elections. Except three times – in 1934, 1998 and 2002 – the ruling party has always backed down in the Congress. And 2022 is not designed to be an exception to the rule.
The second reason: the significant unpopularity of a Democratic president. Uninterrupted since the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, a majority of voters say they disapprove of Joe Biden’s job. For months, the state of the economy has been weighed down by a combination of stagnation and inflation, the contraction of gross domestic product since the start of the year and a historically high inflation rate — adding to the rumblings. In polls, the president has received consistently poor confidence ratings from both consumers and businesses.
A loss of majority in both chambers would have several consequences. The Biden administration will find it difficult to pass its legislative proposals. If Republicans win back the Senate, they can block any major nomination, for example to the Supreme Court. Recall Barack Obama’s failed attempt in 2016 to appoint a moderate judge in the middle of an election year, blocked by a Republican majority in the Senate, followed by Donald Trump’s appointment of three conservative judges, backed by a Senate majority Republican. This new structure of the Supreme Court was last June in Roe v. Wade has championed abortion rights across the country.
In addition, the Republican congressional administration, even the Biden family, will almost certainly open investigations when they abolish the commission on January 6, 2021, which is investigating the attack on Capitol Hill to determine the role Donald Trump played.
This is the last one Trying to select The Republican candidates’ curve in the primaries (with little success More than 90% with Republican voters from the start of the 2022 election cycle). Elected members of Congress are called upon to certify the results of the next presidential election — or not. It will be administered on a state-by-state basis by election officials elected after the November 2022 elections.
In other words, the vote in November will have far-reaching consequences for the current and 46 only.e President, but also for someone who was 45e… and who could be number 47e.
5 barometer races in the House of Representatives
Chamber of Deputies
It is the equivalent of the Lower House, the House of Commons. 435 seats are filled in each state following polling. The least populous state (Wyoming) has 1; Most populous (California) 52. Each elected representative represents a constituency (district).
Representatives are elected for two-year terms. All the seats are up for grabs in the presidential election and later in the by-elections.
Current composition
- 221 Democrats
- 212 Republicans
- 2 vacancies
Major Powers
Act: Any federal bill must be passed in the House. Only the House of Representatives can propose tax laws.
Inquiry: The majority party may hold public hearings, such as the one on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021.
termination of employment: The House, by majority vote, may impeach a member of the government, including the President of the United States; It is up to the Senate to impeach or acquit him.
Myra Flores, 36, became the first Republican in history to win a majority-Hispanic seat in the 2022 midterm elections. A full mandate in the region, which borders Mexico, would consolidate significant gains the Republican Party has made in recent years among ethnic minorities, particularly Hispanics in South Texas.
This district, which was redistricted in 2020, is a prime example of wealthy and educated suburbs (more than 50% of residents have a university degree) that went to the Democratic camp once Donald Trump became the Republican president. Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, the result will reveal the extent to which the Republican Party’s populist turn continues — or not — to put off suburban voters.
After supporting Barack Obama twice, he became an Iowa Republican. Of its four seats in the House, only the third is held by Democrat Cindy Oxen. He risks going there in November, which will cement his party’s pedigree.
Main
2nd Block (Bangor, Lewiston)
This vast riding in the eastern United States shares a long border with Quebec and New Brunswick. He endorsed Trump twice, while also running for Democrat Jared Golden to the House of Representatives twice. If Republicans manage to make a breakthrough in New England in 2022, it will be one of the first districts to drop; If Republicans can break through in New England, a Republican wave will sweep across the country.
Nevada has three precincts covering its metropolitan area, Las Vegas and surrounding areas — all three held by Democrats who are at risk of losing their seats. East may include Las Vegas and its largest suburb, Henderson. Outgoing Rep. Tina Titus had already been swept away by the Republican tsunami of 2010 before returning to her seat two years later. The outcome there will predict the size of the Republican “tide” — and the struggles of Democrats — statewide and nationwide.
5 Races That Determine the Color of the Senate
Senate
The Upper House is equivalent to the Canadian Senate, but its members are elected. It ensures representation for smaller states. There are two senators from each state, who are elected for six-year terms. One-third of the seats are held by rotation every two years.
Current composition
- 50 Democrats
- 50 Republicans
- US Vice President Kamala Harris casts the vote in the event of a tie for Senate President.
Major Powers
Act: All federal bills must be approved by the Senate.
Inquiry: A majority party can initiate public hearings.
termination of employment: If the House of Representatives has already impeached a government official, the Senate has the power to impeach him with a two-thirds vote.
Endorsement: Any international agreement signed by the president, such as the free trade agreement with Canada, must be approved by the Senate.
Confirmation: Most important presidential appointments, including to the federal courts, must be approved by a majority of the Senate.
Astronaut Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who was attacked by a crazed gunman in the Tucson area in 2011, won a seat that had been held for half a century by Republicans in 2020, including presidential candidates John McCain and Barry Goldwater. His opponent’s weakness will enable him to survive in hostile territory.
A Democrat managed to win an election two years ago in this state, which, like Arizona, is very inhospitable to the party. Incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock’s best hope lies in the controversial nature of his opponent, former football star Herschel Walker. The latter is clearly losing ground in the polls after revelations about multiple illegitimate children. Note: This is the first senatorial race in the South between two African-American candidates.
Elected with just 47% of the vote in 2016, Cortes Masto is the most vulnerable incumbent senator in 2022. President Biden’s approval rating has plummeted to a dismal 30% in Nevada, and Laxalt is one of the few quality Republican recruits. Senate this year. The Democrats’ task promises to be very difficult.
The state is the Democrats’ biggest hope of winning a Senate seat, having backed Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, dropping by a percentage point both times. Trump-supporting TV personality ‘Dr. Oz’ is particularly unpopular and left behind Ten points Intending to vote, and this against a Democratic candidate who hasn’t physically campaigned in three months since a heart attack. There are growing doubts within the Republican Party about the strength of Mehmet Oz’s candidacy.
Ron Johnson, re-elected In terrorism In 2016, this year is also likely to heat up, with many of his controversial outings among other things – the question of the existence of climate change, for example, or the armed rebellion on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. Democrats were able to oust him, a sign that their chances of retaining a majority in the Senate are better than expected.
Published in this article November 2022 issue of newsEntitled “Elections Haunted by Donald Trump”.
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