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2023-2027 will undoubtedly be the hottest period on record

The Meteorological Organization warned, on Wednesday, that the period from 2023 to 2027 will be the hottest on earth, in light of the combined effect of greenhouse gases and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which leads to a rise in temperatures.

In addition, global temperatures are expected to soon exceed the most ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement, according to the United Nations Foundation.

“There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years and the five-year period as a whole will be the warmest on record,” the World Meteorological Organization said. It estimates that there is a 66% chance that the Earth’s average annual surface temperature will rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep the average global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels from 1850 to 1900, and if possible to 1.5°C above the same levels.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas stressed in a paper that the data published on Wednesday “does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement, which indicates long-term warming over many years.” launch.

He stressed that “the World Meteorological Organization is sounding the alarm by announcing that the 1.5°C threshold has been temporarily exceeded, and this is more and more.” El Niño should develop in the coming months. And combined with human-caused climate change, it will drive global temperatures to unprecedented levels.”

And to leave no illusions about the seriousness of the situation, Finn insisted on the need to prepare because “the repercussions for health, food safety, water management and the environment will be significant.”

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El Niño and La Niña

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that is generally associated with higher temperatures, increased dryness in some parts of the world, and heavy rains in others. It last occurred in 2018-2019 and gave way to a particularly long – nearly three-year – episode of La Niña, which causes opposite effects, including lower temperatures.

In early May, the WMO estimated there was a 60% chance of an El Niño by the end of July, and an 80% chance by the end of September. As a general rule, this weather phenomenon causes a rise in global temperatures in the year following its onset, or 2024 for this cycle.

Wednesday’s forecast shows that “we have not been able to limit the rise in temperatures so far and we are still moving in the wrong direction,” Talas told a news conference. He estimates that it may take until 2060 to gradually halt the negative trend and prevent things from getting worse.

Despite La Niña’s moderating influence, the past eight years have been the warmest on record, and 2016 holds the crown.

Greenhouse Gases – The main three are carbon dioxide2and methane and nitrous oxide—which hit record levels in the atmosphere, trapping heat and raising temperatures. “It could take thousands of years to return to a normal level,” Talas said.

‘No one will survive’

“It’s going to be a sad day when we go over 1.5C, but that’s no reason to give up,” said Leon Hermanson of Britain’s National Met Office, the WMO’s main center for annual to decadal climate forecasts.

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“We must emit as few greenhouse gases as possible, and any reduction in emissions will reduce global warming,” explains the meteorologist, stressing that “no one will survive these changes,” which are already causing disasters and population displacement.

In addition, forecasts for extreme weather events are “still a bit unknown”, but it is through these extremes that the effects of climate change are felt.

Let’s see in the video